All N. America REIT & Real Estate Research Reports

Spotlight

Sector Updates
Office 03-19-2015
Residential 03-03-2015
Mall 03-13-2015
Industrial 03-15-2015
Strip Center 03-10-2015
Health Care and Lab Space 03-12-2015
Lodging 03-17-2015
Tech 03-19-2015
Self Storage 03-06-2015
Net Lease 03-10-2015

Apartment REIT Commentary: The Young and the Restless

Published 04/02/2015


 
Dave Bragg, in this brief two-minute video and companion report, explains Green Street's bullish view on the operational and M&A outlook for apartment REITs, which is the catalyst for Green Street’s “sector overweight” call on the space.


Macerich 'Says No' to Simon's 'Best and Final'

Published 04/01/2015


Macerich has refused Simon’s ‘best and final’ offer of $95.50/sh, citing that the bid continues to undervalue the prospects of the company. In a Quick Take published March 31st, DJ Busch discusses the valuation and corporate governance implications as Simon formally withdrew its offer.

View Simon's Presentation View Macerich's Presentation Learn More


Special Report – Capital Structure in the REIT Sector

Published 02/26/2015


 
Differences in capital structure have proven to be one of the largest determinants of total return differentials across REITs. Building on over twenty years of extensive research, Mike Kirby and Peter Rothemund recommend an optimal capital structure for REITs, and provide a roadmap for investors to capitalize on fundamental misunderstandings on this topic.

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2015 U.S. Apartment Outlook – A Real Estate Analytics Product

Published 01/27/2015


 
Dave Bragg and his team provided a macro overview of the apartment sector, including national and market-level forecasts for 2015-19. Institutional-quality apartments are now 26% above ’07 peak levels and continue to look attractively valued. The annual U.S. Apartment Outlook serves as a deep dive into the supply and demand dynamics affecting the apartment sector, and provides key insights into how these drivers vary across the top-30 apartment markets. 2015 U.S. outlook reports have also been published for the Mall, Office, Strip Center and Industrial sectors.

View Excerpt


Green Street Featured Insight: REIT Conversions

Published 01/07/2015


The REIT Industry: Growing Leaps and Bounds
By Jim Sullivan

In a recent article for PREA Quarterly, Jim Sullivan says he expects REIT conversions and REIT spin-offs to ramp up in ’15 and continue to expand the boundaries of the types of assets that can end up on a REIT’s balance sheet.  



Jim Sullivan
Managing Director

View Article


REIT Market Provides a Window into Future Private Real Estate Values

Published 12/15/2014



Andy McCulloch, who manages Green Street's Real Estate Analytics group, expects continued upward pressure on real estate asset values. In a REIT.com interview, he explained that while asset values in all the major property sectors are at or above previous market peaks, real estate returns still look attractive relative to the fixed income market. Andy also spoke about why both public and private real estate investors should follow the REIT market. Public market pricing can provide a window into future private market pricing. Finally, he discussed the systematic mispricing in the market due to most real estate investors’ underestimation of cap-ex requirements. Green Street advises investors to overweight low cap-ex property types, such as apartments, self-storage and manufactured housing.


Heard on the Beach – Prudently Imprudent

Published 12/05/2014

REITs Win! Annualized Outperformance by
REITs from Two Studies of Returns

Pension funds are leaving money on the table with their limited REIT allocations. After comparing the performance of listed and private real estate investments, Green Street concludes that 1) REITs behave like real estate over extended time periods; and 2) REITs deliver superior returns relative to what pension funds achieve via private real estate investing.

Read Full Report


Green Street Publishes Reports on Two REIT IPOs

Published 11/13/2014

Green Street published two in-depth IPO reports this week on Paramount Group and STORE Capital, highlighting key valuation issues for investors to consider. Green Street has written on over 65 REIT IPO/Initiation reports over the past 10 years, making it unique among research providers.

Paramount Group, Inc. (PGRE): A REIT IPO of "Paramount" Importance

Portfolio Value - Overall ($B)


Michael Knott, Jed Reagan and the Office team published a report on the pending >$2.5 billion Paramount IPO, which would be the largest ever for a REIT. Proceeds are intended mainly for debt reduction to create a healthy balance sheet. Paramount is a “real company”.

Preview PGRE Report

STORE Capital (STOR): Like a Kid in a Candy STORE

NL REIT Equity Market Capitalization 
($ billions)
 
STORE (STOR), a $2.8 billion REIT owning mostly retail net lease properties, seeks to raise $530 million in an IPO. The proceeds from the IPO will fund acquisitions. Cedrik Lachance writes that investors should expect a torrid acquisition pace - STORE will be the fastest growing Net Lease REIT as a percentage of assets. 

Preview STOR Report


Heard on the Beach: Prairie Dog Town

Published 10/29/2014


New REITs are popping up left and right. Recent results suggest investors would be wise to not play favorites. It's hard to recall a time since the '93/'94 REIT IPO frenzy when more new, credible companies have been slated to soon become publicly traded REITs. Not only is the traditional IPO path to the public market unusually active, an even higher level of activity is taking place in two other, less-traditional channels: 1) C-Corps converting to or spinning out REITs; and 2) Non-Traded REITs (NTRs) listing their shares. REIT investors tasked with familiarizing themselves with the new kids on the block will be pondering where to best devote their energies.

View Excerpt


Single-Family Rental Sector: Growing Up Before Our Eyes

Published 10/15/2014

SFR Estimated Median Gross Yields

In a special report and accompanying conference call on the Single-Family Rental (SFR) sector, Dave Bragg and David Segall conclude that a consolidation wave has only just begun and should accelerate. Their report provides highlights from Green Street’s proprietary database of 75,000+ institutionally-owned SFR assets with insights on gross yields, rent growth, and asset quality. It also gives an updated valuation of SFR REIT American Homes 4 Rent (AMH).

View Excerpt


New Website for Green Street's Advisory & Consulting Group

Published 08/08/2014



Green Street’s Advisory & Consulting Group provides services to investors and operators seeking insightful, customized solutions to enhance their decision-making process. Read about the Group's recent work related to Darden Restaurants, GGP in bankruptcy, Equinix's REIT Conversion and a recent REIT IPO here.

View New Advisory & Consulting Website


How to Value REITs: Download Green Street's Updated Guide

Published 07/01/2014


*Past performance as of 5/30/14 cannot be used to predict
future performance. Please see our track record disclosure.

Green Street just posted its updated REIT Valuation guide based on its NAV-based pricing model for the general public. The model has been pivotal behind the firm’s superb twenty-year recommendation track record. The guide provides the nuts and bolts of an NAV-based analysis, the factors that impact the premiums at which REITs should trade (franchise value, balance sheet risk, corporate governance, and overhead), and Green Street's relative valuation approach for identifying the most/least attractively valued REITs.
 


Green Street in the News: Starboard Real Estate Primer on Darden

Published 04/01/2014



Green Street's Advisory & Consulting group recently completed an in-depth valuation analysis of Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s (NYSE: DRI) real estate holdings for Starboard, a sophisticated hedge fund client.  The analysis included a detailed review of each of Darden's locations. Using Green Street's proprietary data and industry contacts and knowledge, in combination with publicly-available information, our consulting team derived valuation estimates for the company's owned and leased real estate.  Starboard used this information as part of a publicly-filed presentation to argue for a sale or spin-off of the Company's real estate to enhance shareholder value.   

View Press Release


Mike Kirby Wins Graaskamp Award

Published 10/30/2013

Photo Courtesy of Michael Grecco

The James A. Graaskamp award aims to recognize people who, through significant research, contribute practical insights of immediate use to real estate decision makers.

Learn More


Barron’s Interviews Mike Kirby

Published 05/13/2013

Barron's talked with Mike Kirby about REIT valuations, attractive real estate sectors, and some favorite stocks. 

Barrons - Why REITs Will Stay on a Roll
Barrons - Real-Estate Roundtable Interview


Barron's Interviews Green Street Advisors

Published 11/27/2010

Michael Grecco for Barron's

Barron's recently talked with Green Street's president, Craig Leupold, and its director of research, Mike Kirby, about REIT valuations, leading stocks, popular exchange-traded funds and the merits of REITs versus private real-estate investments.

Barrons - REITs with the Right Stuff




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Our Track Record

Total Return of Green Street’s Monthly Recommendations
Jan 28, 1993 to Apr 2, 2015¹
Annualized hypothetical returns

¹Past Performance cannot be used to predict future results.
View our methodology and disclosure statement.

Valuation Data

Green Street Advisors
Commercial Property Price Index

Indexed to 100 in Aug '07

Green Street’s CPPI is a time series of current and historical unleveraged commercial property values. It is not a forecast and does not reflect performance of REIT stocks.
Average Premium to NAV
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