A Glimpse into Green Street’s 2019 Sector Outlooks: Industrial and Retail Drivers Beyond Ecommerce

Newport Beach, CA – February 13, 2019 – Green Street Advisors releases 2019 U.S. Outlooks for apartment, industrial, office, and retail sectors as part of the firm’s Real Estate Analytics research offering. Notable takeaways include rising development obstacles in the industrial sector, and enhancements to Green Street’s Trade Area Power (“TAP”) Scores for strip centers.

Industrial Sector: High Constraints, Better Growth

In Green Street’s recently published Industrial Outlook, lead analyst Eric Frankel conducts new analysis on supply, revealing that despite robust ecommerce-fueled industrial demand, supply has not kept pace. There is significantly greater difficulty in accessing suitable sites for development versus prior periods, leading to a much stronger correlation between markets with rent growth and meaningful regulatory burdens. Contributing factors to lower supply include cumbersome entitlements, rising land and labor costs, scarce availability of land in population-dense locations, and competition with other property types. As a result, Green Street’s forecasts for industrial are far above the inflation-like rent growth expected for other major sectors.

Download the complimentary report, Supply Has Been the Real Surprise, to learn more about increasing development challenges, coastal vs. non-coastal market risk, and the new relationship between Green Street’s Regulatory Barrier Scores - measuring difficulty of development - and rent growth.

Strip Centers: Demographics Drive the Bus

Strip centers are local businesses and demographics play a vital part in assessing a property’s long-term growth profile and cap rate. Green Street created Trade Area Power (“TAP”) Scores to help quantify demand and compare the quality of locations in a singular metric. All things equal, a higher TAP score equates to higher potential demand. Green Street unveiled enhancements to its established TAP Score methodology with its recent release of the 2019 U.S. Strip Center Outlook (including expansion of the firm’s proprietary Strip Center Database to 20,000+ properties). Consequently, this also allows for more accurate ranking of TAP Scores across the top 50 U.S. markets, where the Bay Area markets and D.C. possess the highest TAP Scores in the country.

For more insights:

• Preview the 2019 U.S. Strip Center Outlook excerpt with a Market Snapshot for San Francisco
• Read Green Street's latest blog post, Industrial and Retail Trends Beyond Ecommerce

About Real Estate Analytics

Green Street’s commercial real estate research solution provides proprietary analytics and actionable intelligence to help private and public market participants as they seek to make better investment and portfolio management decisions, mitigate risk, and raise capital more effectively. Green Street’s Atlas mapping and analytics platform enhances the product suite with even more market, submarket, zip code, and property-level visualization and data. Learn more at www.greenstreetadvisors.com/real-estate-analytics.

Green Street Advisors, LLC

Founded in 1985, Green Street Advisors is the preeminent independent research and advisory firm concentrating on the commercial real estate industry in North America and Europe. The company is a leading provider of real estate research, analytics, and data on both the listed and private markets. Learn more at www.greenstreetadvisors.com.