Quality research and distinguished results
The quality of Green Street’s research is evident in the performance of our recommendations. Our team of experienced analysts makes monthly calls on the direction of commercial property prices as well as recommendations on 101 publicly-traded real estate stocks.
I. Private Real Estate Values:
In the last four years, Green Street developed a methodology that has demonstrated a remarkable ability to call the direction of commercial real estate prices.
Green Street’s monthly forecast for commercial
property values vs. actual values after a 6-Month lag
*Note: Green Street's Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) is an index of commercial real estate values. Expected CPPI reflects the extent to which we believe commercial real estate is over or under valued based on prevailing interest rates. Green Street introduced its CPPI in 2009, so the expected CPPI in prior years is backdated (based upon the model's inputs prior to that date).
Green Street’s model would have accurately predicted the direction of future commercial property prices 75% of the time.
*Note: Past performance cannot be used to predict future performance. Click here for complete disclosure statement.
II. Public Real Estate (REIT) Values:
Green Street's model for assessing commercial real estate prices in the private market is incorporated into our RMZ forecasting tool to make calls on the overall pricing of real estate and REITs. The chart below compares Green Street's forecast for REIT prices and the actual performance of REITs relative to stocks/bonds in the subsequent two years.
REIT Valuation & Subsequent Returns
Green Street’s record calling commercial real estate and REIT markets
*Note: Past performance cannot be used to predict future performance. Click here for complete disclosure statement.
...Perhaps even more impressive than our calls of overall real estate and REIT pricing is our work at the company level.
III. Individual Company Recommendations:
Hypothetical Track Record
Green Street is well known for the quality of its in-depth, detailed research at the company level. The results can be seen in our hypothetical track record based on our monthly recommendations.
- Green Street's Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) BUY recommendations have generated annualized total returns of 25% from 1993 - compared to 11% for the stocks in our coverage universe and -1% for our SELL recommendations.
- Every year since 1993, our BUY recommendations outperformed our HOLD recommendations, which outperformed our SELL recommendations, demonstrating our models' effectiveness in bull, bear, and neutral markets.
- The performance shown below is hypothetical, but it nonetheless indicates our ability to pick stocks.
Total Return of Green Street’s Monthly Recommendations
Annualized hypothetical returns from Jan. 28, 1993 to Jan 2, 2012
Total Return of Green Street’s Monthly Recommendations by Year
25%
Green Street's Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) BUY recommendations have generated annualized total returns of 25% from 1993 - compared to 11% for the stocks in our coverage universe and -1% for our SELL recommendations.
| Buy | Hold | Sell | Universe3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| '11 YTD | 19% | 8% | -5% | 8% |
| '10 | 43% | 33% | 26% | 34% |
| '09 | 59% | 48% | 6% | 38% |
| '08 | -28% | -31% | -53% | -37% |
| '07 | -7% | -22% | -28% | -20% |
| '06 | 46% | 30% | 20% | 32% |
| '05 | 26% | 19% | -2% | 16% |
| '04 | 43% | 29% | 16% | 29% |
| '03 | 43% | 37% | 22% | 35% |
| '02 | 17% | 3% | 3% | 5% |
| '01 | 35% | 19% | 13% | 21% |
| '00 | 53% | 2% | 6% | 30% |
| '99 | 12% | -9% | -20% | -7% |
| '98 | -2% | -15% | -15% | -12% |
| '97 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 18% |
| '96 | 48% | 31% | 19% | 32% |
| '95 | 23% | 14% | 1% | 14% |
| '94 | 21% | -1% | -9% | 3% |
| '93 | 27% | 5% | 8% | 12% |
| Period 2/93 - 12/11 | ||||
| Total Return | 6893% | 565% | -24% | 638% |
| Annualized | 25% | 11% | -1% | 11% |
*Note: Past performance cannot be used to predict future performance. Click here for complete disclosure statement.
Green Street Investors’ Performance
Green Street Advisors has an affiliate Green Street Investors that aims to generate above average returns by investing in real estate securities using the investment recommendations of Green Street Advisors. For more information about Green Street Investors and its performance, please visit http://www.greenstreetinvestors.com/GSIPerformance.pdf.